Homer Bailey to Make His Major League Debut This Weekend

Comingoff one of his worse starts of the Triple-A season – a six-inning outing in which he gave up four runs on seven hits and three walks --   Bailey is likely to be called up this weekend, according to MLB.com. And despite the lukewarm showing on Saturday, it’s not a bad decision should it come to pass.

 
It’s still unconfirmed at this time but the signs are in place, and manager Jerry Narron has not ruled it out, suggesting a decision has been made, just not announced. Earlier I wrote on this Blog that the time wasn’t right but things have changed, most notably in his past three starts where he’s done everything right, putting the International League hitter way at a more efficient rate. One could argue that three starts isn’t enough innings, but the opportunity presents itself now, as soon as Friday.

 
As to what to expect should the report prove to be true? It’s always a hit-and-miss proposition when pitchers first get called up. I’m one of the few that thought Bailey was the best pitching prospect in baseball coming into this year. A previous admission on Tim Lincecum included, I still like Bailey more, feeling his long term prognostication is higher for both control and injury issues. As mentioned, most first-starts for top pitching prospects are good; they tend to degrade later, after the hitter and advanced scouts have a read on them, and I don’t think Bailey is going to be called up for a one and out. He should have enough success to make Eric Milton’s return from injury irrelevant.

 A realistic projection should be similar to Lincecum’s season thus far; at times great, while other starts show they’re still in development mode. The one concern short term is the ability to put the higher class of hitter away. If he’s hitting the acceptable strikeout-per-nine rate of around 7.00 in his third or fourth start, it should be a decent year. While the Giants prospect has the advantage in deception and a nastier fastball, velocities are basically neutral (both can get to the high 90s at times), and Bailey has the superior overall repertoire and is less likely to have control problems. The end numbers could look similar; the best saved for next decade.