The James Loney Call Up

TheDodgers called up James Loney from Triple-A Las Vegas and designated Brady Clark for assignment. Loney is a solid prospect but didn’t get the call based on merit having posted a .279/.345/.382 performance in the Pacific Coast League with one home run and 48/25 K:BB ratio in 56 games.

 
I’m unsure what’s going on in Los Angeles as playing time has become a commodity with Matt Kemp having been recently recalled to go with prospect Tony Abreu, Andy LaRoche having been demoted. Abreu –- a second base prospect -- is the starter at the hot corner at present over Wilson Betemit, Kemp fights for time with Andre Ethier, possibly moving to centerfield as the Dodgers have become disenchanted with Juan Pierre’s inability to get on base or play the position  to the standard of a centerfielder earning $44 million through a five-year stretch. Loney could play the outfield in a pinch but is best suited to first base, where veteran Nomar Garciaparra can be found struggling with offensive woes, one home run and a .273 batting average in 231 at-bats.

 
Nomar and Vlad Guerrero are the anti-Christs to the plate discipline disciples. In the past 10 years both have used their unique abilities -- profound eye-hand coordination in combination with superlative reflexes – to ignore the notion of taking pitches; hitting for both average and power without the need for a strike to be thrown. But has Nomar’s time come and gone? I’ve long suspected age-slide issues would be quick and severe for these two, Nomar more than Vlad for a host of reasons. There’s a case to be made Nomar, at age 33, has begun to deteriorate.

 
I’ll help disclaim this incidental statistical analysis by pointing out I’m comparing two months of data against three years, at times 10. Small sample size disclosed, here are the results….

 
As mentioned Nomar annually displays a hit-first approach, and is normally on the bottom of the pitchers per plate appearance stat, one that can be used to point to an age-slide; as a player’s reaction slow or his eye becomes less than, he’ll have a tendency to take more pitches and this increase, in combination to a contact rate reduction, and possibly a swing in his usual GB/FB rate, is an indication his best is behind him. Ignoring his small sample rookie call up, his 3.49 pitches per plate appearance is higher than any of his prior years, well above his career average of 3.19. He’s a notorious first-ball hitter, his average this year is .405 on 0-0 counts –- career .336 –- yet he’s made contact just 16.02 percent of the time, again well below the 22.75 percent he posted the three years subsequent. These in combination with a groundball-skewed rate of 1.46, the highest of a career that has averaged a highly neutral 1.01 suggest his career is in quick-slide.

Perhaps the Dodgers are hoping to trade him the Loney call up seems to indicate something is afoot.