Marlon Byrd, Paul McAnulty and Scott Livingston – Callups
A pleasantslow-paced weekend and I thought I’d use Monday to catch up on a few
transactions from the obscure and curious files.
Marlon
Byrd was called up by the Rangers and has gone 2-for-8 starting in two consecutive
games. I wrote on Byrd’s quick start here, noting I didn’t see him getting the
call with the Rangers outfield situation being convoluted; both major league and prospect
wise. But — I know some of my prospect brethren and colleagues are gonna hate
this — he deserved the call up over Jason Botts and deserves the playing time
over Nelson Cruz. Byrd outperformed Botts at Triple-A by a wide margin, and Cruz
has issues.
I admit
to not really being in the corner of Cruz or Victor Diaz. Cruz has a hole in his
swing that is currently being exploited by major league pitching; I think a
demotion is in order before this season is lost developmentally. Diaz has never
struck me as a guy who is anything but a role player.
I’ve
always liked Byrd’s skill set; at the very least he’s a decent bench player
with a little speed on the base paths, some pop in his bat, and the ability to
play three outfield positions. At age 29, he has much to prove and no time. I’m
not betting the farm on success in 2007 as the odds against are less than
favorable, but I will say I like his chances this season over Cruz or Diaz. At
bats for the half-season necessary to gauge seem improbable with the injured likely
to return, noting perhaps the Rangers have brought him up with the idea of trading
Kenny Lofton while he’s healthy.
Paul McAnulty
got the call on Saturday to replace Brian Giles, but it might be a short stint
with the injury to the regular right fielder not considered long term; more in
line with getting him some rest as the knee injury appears to have hurt his
production.
McAnulty,
a slow but steady riser since the Padres made him a 12th round pick
out of Long Beach State U., hasn’t had much success at Triple-A this year, his
second full season at the level. The 5-10, 230-pounder is now 26 and doesn’t
really profile as a major league regular; too short to be considered ideal at
first base, too short and slow-footed for third base, and too slow to decisively
cover Petco dimensions in the outfield. He’s a left-handed pull hitter with
power, but struggles against left-handed pitching and generates much of his
production as a mistake hitter. He’s been slow but successful at every level,
and he might surprise and become a decent bat as a corner outfielder, it just
isn’t likely to be in 2007 without a few changes to the Padres current roster;
a fourth outfielder projection with a little upside for improving this prognostication.
Bobby Livingston was recalled on Monday to replace Kirk Saarloos; sent down due to ineffectiveness. I profiled him here, when he was first called to make a start for Eric Milton. He was — as projected – both hittable and
serviceable. I thought to make a second note here as I like this call up for
his type of pitcher. As a slow-growth soft-tossing southpaw, time spent in a
long relief capacity –most likely to come in low-key situations – can be
invaluable. I think it’s a good call by the organization; we’ll see if they can
live with it and whether or not it ultimately provides fruit later.
Tim Lincecum –Prognostication Update
This is a
follow up on a piece I did prior to Lincecum being called up where I discussed erroneous
early assumptions on my part, his mechanics, and took a look to the future. At
one point I made reference to discussions on Lincecum with three professionals;
one of whom I made the reference “grinned like the
cat that ate the canary, hinted, but refused to share.” This was none other
than Will Carroll, who I’ve had dialogue with since he was exclusively with
Baseball Prospectus, me with Rotowire; the two baseball news organizations of
differing roots having had a relationship for years. At the time of our correspondence
Will had a contractual obligation to not say anything, a video piece for
MLB.com pending.
The piece is now out, found here, and discusses many of the issues
I touched upon, but going well beyond my little Blog entry. I love this work
for its simplicity; Will has taken the high-end topic and broken it down visually,
making it clear to every level of viewer. I personally like the time spent on
the hip turn as I’ve often drawn analogies to golf for generating force through
the turn, but mainly in reference to hitting; Lincecum’s extreme use a rarity
in a major league pitcher. The one problem area Will’s video illustrates clearly
is the strain on both the back and abdomen; my concern probably more to the
oblique muscles as the potential injury area short term.
My comparison to Sandy Koufax was also done better in the video,
later, Mr. Carroll threw a John Smoltz comp at me for a potential long term
career discussion. That’s a good topic for a later date, although it belongs in
an article more than a Blog post; mine are already too long. For now I’ll note
Smoltz as possibly the National League strikeout King in 2007 – the old guy
versus the young in Jake Peavy – but should yield the title to Lincecum in 2008
with the Big Unit finally showing his age and unlikely to make 34 starts a
season again. Despite this lofty view of his talent, Lincecum is unlikely to
win an ERA title or a CY Young award in the near future, the control issue at the
forefront of this projection. I’m still uncertain what the long-term future
holds; the injury issue still present in my mind, believing he won’t be able to
last as a starter into his 30s without re-inventing his mechanics to put a
little less stress on the right side of his trunk. For now, just enjoy the
ride, for he is the most exciting young pitcher to come up this decade, even if
he’s ultimately not the best. And I’m not known for tossing about this type of
accolade lightly.
Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and This Year’s Draft
RyanBraun gets his long-awaited major league debut on Friday. It’s time with the Brewers
“veteran-ness” experiment a flop, the pair of Craig Counsel and Tony Graffanino
managing 41 hits in 198 at-bats, a paltry nine extra bases and 16 RBI in almost
two months.
Braun was
down for a bit early in the month with a couple of minor injuries but he’s hit
since his return, a 1.119 Triple-A Pacific Coast League OPS fair proof the offensive production at the hot corner is
about to improve. His currently raw defense should be a concern, but the giveaway-
takeaway comparison to the others should result positively.
I don’t blame
the Brewers for taking this approach early; they’re in a good spot now six games
up in the NL Central — the only team above .500 — and can afford the defensive
risk. I expect Braun to succeed at the plate where Alex Gordon is currently failing.
Both are top tier prospects, Braun’s power potential slightly better, Gordon
the better defender. The Brewers approach to let Braun have a little success at
Triple-A first will probably prove be the right development course of action.
Speaking
of the right course of action, I wrote on Yovani Gallardo prior to his last 10 K
start, believing he’s ripe after domination of the high minors. You’ll read
about it everywhere until it does happen. Don’t be surprised if it’s soon, and fantasy
leaguers should believe it’ll be both successful and permanent.
I
research the draft class every year, often begin the follow a year or two
prior, but historically my job has been to pontificate first in a lengthily article before
draft date, the true analysis beginning after they have a team. But every year
I get asked who I like, often from high-end dynasty and keeper fantasy players
who know I’m usually able to give them a different perspective for their
purposes, doing it for myself for more years than I care to disclose; for
the here and now, just two picks, hitter/ pitcher, and why.
Hitter
Matt Wieters,
C Georgia Tech – A Scott Boras client, he’s expected to fall in
the draft to mid-to-late first round range, only because of sign-ability. But
for fantasy, he’s a catcher who’ll likely remain one as he develops, with strong
offensive skills and high-end power; Joe Mauer-lite without the batting average
and less injury issues for now, but with the greater 30-plus home run potential.
Pitcher
Rick
Porcello, RHP Seton
Hall Prep – David Bryce is the consensus #1, the safer choice, but I like Porcello,
the high school pitcher for being more ace-like with upper-tier raw material. Dynasty
leaguers generally understand the additional
length of time and risk in a high school pitcher, but this is the guy I most
like for stardom. A college, higher-risk/ higher-upside type for me is North
Carolina State’s Andrew Brackman, who could ultimately join the many from this
decade who went from college to late-inning major leaguer in a short time frame;
definitely unrefined but he should bulldoze his way through the low minors quickly.
Tony Abreu Makes his Major League Debut
Abreu hasstatistically been down, up and down again this season at Triple-A Las Vegas,
and now finds himself up in the majors going 0-for-3 with an error playing third
base. He was hitting an overall .347 in the Pacific Coast League with two home runs and a
.503 slugging.
The
22-year-old has never garnered the same interest as many of the Dodgers’ sexier
prospects, but he profiles as a pretty decent player as an everyday second baseman
once Jeff Kent is no longer in the picture; solid gap/line drive power and quality defense. He won the high Single-A Florida State League batting title in
2005, less prolific in his Double-A performance last year, but enough development to warrant the
advance. He won’t be star or a home run king, but should hit enough at the
position in a year or two making him more than a defense-first type.
I’m
uncertain what the Dodgers plans are at present, noting Abreu is the third young
player and second call up from Triple-A to play the hot corner. Is the Andy LaRoche
era delayed based on a 30 at-bat sample?
If that’s the case it would seem he got about the same rope-length as Wilson Betemit. Abreu will need time in the the majors
before he’s ready to be an asset. Like many young Dominican-signed players he’s
not a patient hitter yet. He swings at first offering far too regularly, and
while he usually puts the ball in play, more discipline will be a requirement
he needs to address. A solid, not great, prospect that isn’t likely to help out
too much offensively without learning on the job; the notion the Dodgers will
trade for a big hot-corner bat still the talk of many rumor sites.
The Pirates Big Three at Triple-A – Boom Or Bust?
Followingthe Twins Triple-A International League trio turned duo with the promotion of
Scott Baker, the Pirates have three rotation members at their IL affiliate that
have been garnering attention of late. But unlike the Twins, these three are a
little less prolific in their current prospect status, and through a series of
failures and or misfortunes are largely considered busts. It’s unusual to have
this much first round failure, improbable that all three are having success in
a comeback attempt at the same time, same place. I think it’s safe to say the
International League has been over run with pitching prospects of all statuses this
season, and they’ve clearly had their way. Is the Triple-A Indianapolis trio
really on their way to major league prominence? Let’s take a look.
Sean Burnett-
The 19th overall pick in the 200 draft out of high school is a control-type
left-hander that showed signs of becoming a solid starter without being overly
dominant, but ran into trouble — both performance and injury — at the major league
level in 2004, eventually succumbing to Tommy John surgery in April, 2005. His
return has not been pretty, a 46/46 K:BB ratio in 120 and a third Triple-A innings
in 2006, such is the rehab process for a control pitcher.
This
season he’s 4-3 in nine starts with a 3.81 ERA but second in the league in
walks with another mediocre 21/27 K:BB ratio. He’s also been pitching behind in
the count far too often and not locating his curveball the net result is being
hit at a .303 pace. A pitcher of his type and class can expect a 2-3 year rehab
working rehab, control being the last thing to work its way back from the
surgery, the issue finite for him without a high velocity fastball.
He’s still
only 24, not too late to revive his career. Beyond the issues of injury which I’ve
discussed often in the past with Will Carroll as it pertains to the Pirates’
pitching prospects, Burnett probably never did have the ceiling that warranted
the first round selection. He could still be a back-end to mid-rotation type,
but it won’t be for a year or two, if ever.
John VanBenschoten – The eighth overall pick in 2001
out of Kent State is a right-handed power pitcher. He was also an NCAA hitter of notoriety
and I thought on draft day he should have been developed as a position player;
the Bucs obviously disagreed. Coming up, he would dominate for stretches but his
overall strikeout-per-nine was weak for his class and pedigree. Now on the back
end of two shoulder surgeries with five starts the past two years coming into
this season he needs something and fast; now 27, the result of an overage college
pitcher and the injury issue.
He’s 3-3 in eight starts with one of the better
Triple-A International League ERA’s at 2.47, but a 31/17 K:BB ratio in 43 and two-third
innings and overall 1.24 WHIP is proof not everything is right in his world. Ahead
in the count he’s brutal on hitters, but he continues to pitch behind too often. He’s
never shown the ability to finish the high-minor hitter off at an acceptable rate
for his genre and first-round pedigree. There’s still room for improvement;
despite his age he’s had but 90 professional starts coming into the year. But
with shaky control and a fastball that’s lost a little zip as a result of
injury, it’s difficult to see him reaching the promise he once had. He’s still
a candidate for call up this year, still with at least a measurable chance for
a career.
Bryan
Bullington - The first overall pick in 2002 — over B.J.
Upton -– missed all of 2006 due to labrum surgery. The decision to take the Ball State product first was a curious one; the revisionist view now adds credibility to the many scouts who claimed he was
potentially no more than a second starter type prior to the draft. That being
said, he is a power pitcher but one who hadn’t worked at 95 mph since his college
days.
This
season, his second look at Triple-A, first since the shoulder surgery, has begun
well posting an IL leaderboard 6-2 in nine starts with a 2.96 ERA, noting his
control has been less than decent posting a 30/23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54
and two-third innings, the numbers inflated with two bad starts in his last three outings.
Reports are
his velocity has returned to 93 mph, but his control has been lacking, the
results having him hit at a .247 clip and not controlling the game they way the
Pirates would like. He’s been the most consistent of the three over his minor
league career, but the descriptors solid, decent, and average do not infer ace or
forecast a great career. He to will be 27 this year, and needs to have continued
success and developing control over this season before I’ll get onboard with reaching
his potential as a No.2.
Both the
injury history and the rationale for making these three pitchers first round
picks are curious; something I’ve questioned for years. Who gets blamed for
this three-year disaster? Is it scouting, former General Manager Cam Bonifay, David
Littlefield, the minor league development team, or just the assistant to the God of baseball responsible for injury?
Jared Goedert – Minor League Home Run Leader
Jared Goedertcurrently leads the minor leagues with 15 home runs. And the question is; who
is Goedert? He’s never made a prospect list, wasn’t on a Baseball America
Top-100 draft list, barely received any
ink at all, heck, why should we care about some unknown low Single-A
21-year-old?
He’s
going to garner a fair bit of ink in the near future, on the minds of many for
the fast start. He’s not likely to keep up the pace; a promotion to high
Single-A should be in the cards shortly although there is depth at the next
rung above him. Obviously age-at-level plays a role, but a .357/.480/.743
performance with 40 RBI and a 23/34 K:BB ratio in only 40 games is notable, particularly when the age issue is due to his
being drafted in 2006 as an NCAA player, when Indians chose him in the ninth
round after picking him in the 36th round in 2003 out of high
school.
He’s a switch hitter with 13-of-15 dingers coming from the left side. Don’t get caught
up in that game at present noting that only 37-of-140 at-bats have come
right-handed, his slugging from that side still robust at .595. The Kansas State University product profiled with raw power potential coming into the year, with solid discipline and a line drive stroke.
The numbers are not really all that surprising, and I’m sure everyone is taking
the wait-and-see approach on how he’ll do at the higher levels, an aggressive
development schedule always preferable for overage power hitters coming out of the
college ranks.
As a defensive third baseman he’s currently being referred to as average, an upgrade
from the draft-year scouting reports in which most felt he’d become an outfielder
at some point in his pro career. Neither is a particularly glamorous spot to be
in with the Indians. Andy Marte –struggling in the majors –and Wes Hodges,
currently fairing well at high Single-A, are the higher-up third-sackers in the organization,
while the outfield is a minefield of solid prospects. He needs to be promoted
but the timetable to the majors is diluted by the depth. He’ll really need to
force the issue to see the majors by 2009.
Major League News and Transactions – Scott Baker and Travis Metcalf
TravisMetcalf got called up to replace Hank Blalock (shoulder surgery) and went
0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout before being pinch hit for. Metcalf, an 11th
round college pick in 2004, had a .780 career
OPS in 325 minor leagues coming into 2007, but started better this year posting
a .294/.363/.507 performance at Double-A Frisco, noting he’s old for the level
at 24.
He has
some power potential and is one of the better fielding third basemen in the
minors, but his bat has been slower to come around with many believing he doesn’t
have enough offense to excel in the majors at the position. In some fashion he
reminds me of Mark Teahen who I wasn’t high on coming up. I’ll call Metcalf “Teahen-lite,”
mentioning I’m not always correct. I didn’t see Teahen excelling in the majors and
missed the boat on the Brewers’ Billy Hall at around the same time.
Scott
Baker had a good beginning pitching for the Twins on Saturday. I discussed the
reasons why Baker should have gotten the call over Matt Garza early in the week
at the quononbaseball.com Blog. Eric Mack over at CBS Sportsline had been
touting Garza or Kevin Slowey over Baker, as he did Homer Bailey earlier in the
month. Sometimes things are not as you wish them and the Twins are in the
business of baseball, a team that needs to develop prospects to succeed.
Baker did
the needful things in the minors to get him back to the majors, limiting the
hits yielded and the home runs. While the line was solid the two runs against
were via the longball. But let’s give him the benefit of the doubt for the
moment as he gave the first home run up to J.J. Hardy, the second batter he faced,
the second not coming until the ninth inning. Fatigue could have been a factor.
As to
Garza, I feel he’s out of whack at the moment and not excelling at Triple-A the
way he should. The stats and scouting reports suggest he’s far from dominant, something
you’d expect to see from a top prospect before a permanent call up is
considered. The Twins made the right call on Baker over Garza; time will tell
if the 25-year-old has sufficiently addressed the issues that plagued his 2006
season.
Changes Afoot For The Cubs?
In astrange move, the Cubs called up Carlos Marmol to serve as reliever. Marmol, a
converted catcher who hit a low-minor career .268 before moving to the mound,
has seen major league time in 2006 in the Cubs pen, kindly categorized as poor,
a result of injuries that forced their hand and had him up far too early.
This season,
back in the Triple-A Iowa rotation, he was second in the Pacific Coast League
in strikeouts to all-world Brewers pitching prospect Yovanni Gallardo with 48
in 41 innings, 4-1 in seven starts with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He’s pitched
ahead in the count at an almost 2-1 ratio and held opponents to a .204
batting average; in one word, solid. I’ve liked him for a while as a deep sleeper;
a live arm mid-90s fastball with the same issues of the converted position player,
underdeveloped secondary pitches. I’ve wondered how it would play out as a starter,
always thinking of him more as a later-inning relief prospect, although I’ve
heard reports his curveball has improved immensely.
Why the call
up now? Angel Guzman was pulled from his last start early with a hamstring cramp
but claims it’s nothing. He’s shown signs of life as a starter recently
although he’s yet to go deep into games. The Cubs late-inning bullpen has been
far from automatic having blown 8-of-17 save opportunities already this season,
second in the NL to Colorado’s nine. With the Central Division
leading Brewers 3-of-20 in this department, and the Cubs already six back, one
wonders how long it will be until Lou Pinella loses his kinder, gentler self
and becomes the Mariners’ version we remember and reminisce on often.
Felix Pie went 0-for-4 on Friday breaking a nine-game minor league hitting streak darting
back to April14 when he went 0-2. In 74 Triple-A at-bats he’s hitting .419/.482/.595
with a 12/10 K:BB ratio. Pie hits left-handed, so does Jacque Jones and Cliff
Floyd. But Jones can’t hit lefties; a .370 slugging through the years 2004-2006,
and can’t play centerfield with the same proficiency as the 22-year-old top prospect.
With all the above information, I think a change in could be in the works, and soon.
Andrew Miller, Rick Ankiel and Lastings Milledge
Millergets the call for Jeremy Bonderman; DL-ed retroactive to May 9 and possibly
returning May 24th. Obviously Miller is the superior choice to Virgil Vasquez,
who was not able to beat the odds and carry his minor league hot streak to the
majors. The southpaw made one start for Double-A Erie – an eight inning shutout
– after being promoted from high Single-A where he was 1-4 in seven starts
with a 3.48 ERA.
Accolades
aside, his overall numbers this season have not been great showing a weak strikeout
rate against the competition level and hit far too regularly. Again, repeating
this line far too often, he’s not ready for a full-time starting gig in the majors.
The Tigers have wisely picked an interleague start against the currently light-hitting
Cardinals for last year’s sixth overall college pick to face. I’d personally
like to see him in the minors until September, but recognizing the need is now.
It shouldn’t be long term however.
Rick Ankiel
has pulled up lame, being placed on the Triple-A Pacific Coast Leage 7-day disabled list
because of an Achilles’ tendon injury. Cardinals’ general manager Walt Jocketty
said this week that the condition is not believed serious, according to the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch. Quick! How many of you thought the former prize pitching prospect
turned Steve Blass could re-invent himself as a hitter? Well, guess what? He’s been
one of the better hitters in the PCL this year posting a .281/.318/.579
performance with nine home runs and 31 RBI, noting he doesn’t like to walk much
with a 26/6 K:BB ratio in 33 games. Assuming the injury is as described, we
could see him in the majors this season as an outfielder, with the production from
a few in St. Louis kindly referred to as weak.
Lastings Milledge –
currently with Triple-A New Orleans — may have worn out his welcome with the latest fiasco of bad press for his recent rap endeavor. On Wednesday
one fantasy writer wrote Milledge and Don Imus in the same sentence, implying
that backlash and resulting penalty are somehow connected to this issue.
I won’t go
there, not for a second, but will say the Mets have some other outfield prospects.
If they are as image conscious as many claim, they could explore trade options.
And honestly, there are 29 teams that will take that call. The heavily talented
22-year-old needs to grow up a bit, but did the troubles of Elijah Dukes, Delmon
Young, and in recent past, Milton Bradley, keep them from a career, or even
a lack of interest?
Nah, the
business of baseball has too few places for lower-end morality issues of this
nature.
Marcus McBeth and Connor Robertson Called Up on Tuesday
(At some point I’ll get back towriting on the deeper minor league prospects but there’s been an inordinate amount
of dips into the minors for the lesser known, compelling me to act as the AP wire-writer
intern. Hopefully I’ll be able to get farther back into the minors later in the
week. For now, note that Justin Upton was promoted to Double-A, and yeah, he’s
good!)
I find irony in both Robertson and McBeth getting called
up in the same day – McBeth for the Reds, Robertson for the A’s – in as much as
McBeth would have been the call up for Oakland had circumstances not had him
dealt to the Reds in the Chris Denorfia deal, leaving Robertson as the Triple-A
Sacramento closer and top high-minor relief prospect; if there really is such a
thing. With the A’s bullpen struggling overall, the injury to Huston Street –irritation in his right ulnar nerve -– bears close scrutiny, and couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Robertson is interesting, although not as prolific as McBeth,
and probably profiles best as a set up man, not a closer of the future. A 31st
round pick in 2004, he was a solid NCAA hitter as well. He features three
pitches, a low 90s sinking fastball, a good slider, and a changeup still in
development but improved in the past two seasons. The one thing of relevance is
the improvements he’s made along the way while noting his minor league
strikeout rate is over one per inning at every level including this season in
the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Since the McBeth trade on April 28, he’s
2-for-2 in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed a run in the seven appearances
since assuming the closer role.
He’s a work in progress; a late-inning reliever in development.
The Street injury could be a significant one, compared to Marlins’ Josh Johnson
who has a similar injury and projected to be sidelined for 2-3 months. At this
point I’m not aware of the severity; too early to pontificate on what role Robertson
will play. It wouldn’t be prudent to suggest he could close games in the majors,
but the bullpen is in shambles at present, and we’ve all seen short-term closing
solutions rise from obscurity in the past.
McBeth is the more established entity as one of the A’s
better prospects coming into the season. The trade that sent him to the Reds
was odd in as much as Denorfia was gone for the year with reconstructive
right elbow surgery before the deal was consummated. I believe the trade was a
knee-jerk reaction, the team deftly identifying a long term issue, capitalizing
on the injury to address it with a player that fit their definition, only to have
injuries exploit the problems in the short term.
McBeth, the former University of South Carolina
football player, turned outfielder, turned minor league closer has had inconsistent
velocity reports on his fastball –anywhere from 91-96 as the usual mph
velocity – with a weak, underdeveloped slider,
and a change up which projects as a plus pitch in the majors. Given he didn’t
start pitching until 2005, at age 25, I think there’s room for leeway ,although
it should be pointed out he’s been promoted aggressively due to his age and athleticism;
the results less than ideal for a closer in the making as his strikeout rate
has fallen at the upper level and is weak for the genre.
While this flies in face of the prospect logic of many
well-respected in the field, I still prefer Reds bullpen member Brad Salmon as
a long-term solution to closer over McBeth. That opinion out of the way, I won’t
discount the logic mentioned above on where closers come from. But I don’t
think McBeth is in those plans in the near future, still too inexperienced and definitely
in training.
danquon
Recent Comments